Click on your county above for specific evacuation zones, and emergency contacts. (Weather Bell). This system is no threat to the United States. © 1998 - 2020 Nexstar Inc. | All Rights Reserved. The UKMET model’s 0Z Monday forecast predicted a landfall southwest of Houston, Texas, around 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday as an intensifying hurricane. Laura became a hurricane Tuesday shortly after entering the warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, gathering strength on a path to hit the U.S. coastline. In short, it gives you a way to see where a tropical storm or hurricane may head. The white lines are isobars (lines of equal pressure). No need to freak out: just keep up with Eric and Matt’s reports here and prepare quietly. ( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley ), You are on the spaghetti models page for LAURA. Looking forward to the next update with better news. A FOX13news.com site.TM and © document.write(new Date().getFullYear()); Fox Television Stations, Inc., and its related entities.All rights reserved. It could become Hurricane Laura, a Category 3 storm, just before landfall late Wednesday into early Thursday. Love your very helpful and honest information. Model guidance takes the system closer to Bermuda over the next week. But, the time to prepare was really this weekend, along with the “get the heck out” bag so that one can avoid panic. This would push Laura more westward, toward Texas. I don’t understand why it gets 20% weight while the mass destruction of Houston gets 30%. This mathematical model is run four times a day. I have stocked up on water, food, flashlights, dog food and most importantly WINE. Yes they lock their privates and don’t contribute to society. For official path information, as well as land hazards and other data: View the LAURA storm track page » To view spaghetti models for all active hurricanes, cyclones, … The Global Forecast System is a global numerical computer model run by NOAA. I’ve told my mother that she should know this routine down cold since she’s lived here for over 50 years. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. Forum European Centre for Medium-Range Weather European Model However, a weaker Marco would probably allow for Laura to follow a more northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico, toward Louisiana. This would necessitate coastal evacuations and lead to widespread power outages, among other problems. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire. 2021 Winter Outlook. Laura is now a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The accuracy drops significantly after day five, and significant long-range forecast changes are … Solid Sunday night entry, Eric. In this scenario Houston sees some briefly gnarly winds, possibly gusting to hurricane force on the east side of the city. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. Rainfall would be less of a concern because we expect Laura to scoot through fairly rapidly. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast. Because of this uncertainty I thought it might be helpful to outline three scenarios that I think are possible, along with their likelihood of happening. Count me on the “let’s have scenario #3 but prep for scenario #1” plan. Just kidding about the last one, sorry Tom. Why would I want to view spaghetti models? The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. The warm gulf and the lack of shear keeps Laura dangerous this week. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. The European model is the one that consistently outperforms the GFS model run by NOAA according to The National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification report. These, and more details, are the reasons why overall confidence in Laura’s track remains low. So Eric’s 30% is a bit higher than the NHC’s ~1/6 but with either # it’s worth being prepared. That will be the case this week: High pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will produce a southeasterly breeze across the region, tapping into slightly warmer and more humid air from the Atlantic Ocean. With less time over the Gulf this is a weaker storm. El Niño. Thank you Eric and Matt for keeping me sane! The strength of the southeastern ridge, shown above, will determine Laura’s track. The National Hurricane Center projects Laura to strengthen to a Category 4 storm as it moves toward the Gulf Coast, and potentially Tennessee. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Several models bring Laura to major hurricane status in 36 hours. Dogs are way more important than humans!!! I’m tired but doing something has its benefits. Computer models suggest that Laura could tap the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a large and dangerous hurricane. Houston would see almost no significant impacts from such a scenario, but it could cause significant surges or flooding in New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama. This means the most likely scenario is now an event similar to Hurricane Rita, in 2005. Following the European model the system looks to make landfall near the TX-LA border as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane sometime Saturday afternoon/evening. In this case Laura comes off Cuba and begins moving almost due northwest, toward New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. To view spaghetti models for all active hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons, visit the main spaghetti models page. This includes experimental path data based on weather models. Here is the text from the National Hurricane Center: LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no…, A strong tropical wave is southeast of Bermuda Monday morning and will likely become Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Epsilon later today. My dogs!!!!!!!!!! Keep in mind the cone only covers 2/3 of the historic error range. Laura es now a hurricane and could be … Hurricane cone of uncertainty doesn't mean what many people think it means. Models. This mathematical model is run four times a day. Evacuate immediately if so ordered. Future radar data is available from now to ~2.5 days in the future. It’s a Category 1 with winds at 75 mph as of 8am central time Tuesday morning. We have a new tropical depression. As prepared as we can be. I turn people on to ya’ll and they are like, What did Eric and Matt say? The HWRF model shows a strong hurricane approaching Galveston Bay at 7pm CT Wednesday. (Weather Bell) ... European model depiction of Laura at 4am CT Wednesday. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti. This will be Tropical Storm Epsilon later today. Thank you so much for keeping us posted! This is one reason why the models are struggling with how to handle Laura’s ultimate path. Climate Change. “I have my civil defense helmet and beer, I’m good” – Lanny Griffith, Have guys overlapped the tracks of the 2 storms? Most models bring Invest 94L to tropical storm status in the…. Lower pressures are indicated in dark blue. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. For official path information, as well as land hazards and other data: View the LAURA storm track page ». Hype-free forecasts for greater Houston with Eric Berger and Matt Lanza, powered by Reliant, Posted by Eric Berger at 8:45 PM on August 23, 2020. Everyone shut up………….does Katy need to evacuate? In this scenario the ridge of high pressure remains strong, and drives Laura toward Matagorda Bay or Galveston Bay very late on Wednesday, or early Thursday. Along this track, Houston would very narrowly escape the worst of Laura’s winds, waves, and rains—these would impact Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Southwestern Louisiana. This time of year, when we get a shot of chilly air, it’s important to savor the moments because that cool air quickly warms up in a short amount of time! Idk if anyone has taken that into account. This would allow for maximum time over the warm Gulf of Mexico, and we could see Laura coming ashore as a powerful Category 2, 3, or even 4 hurricane. Dogs lifespan is less than a humans, therefore dogs are more important. They say it’s the least likely scenario, but cite several repeated predictions. Doing so sends you our complete posts immediately after publication (and nothing else). I’d like to welcome our new readers to the site—whether you found us through a friend or family member, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or of course our MySpace page. It seems likely that a “stronger” Marco, maintaining hurricane strength on Monday as it nears the Louisiana coast, would amplify a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States. This includes experimental path data based on weather models. This obviously would be a very bad deal for Galveston, Houston, and points east in terms of storm surge and winds. Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at, make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated. Thus, different models produce different final results. Laura will arrive in three days or less, Houston should prepare now for possible impacts, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Laura now grazing Cuba, set to threaten Texas and Louisiana by mid-week, Looking ahead to Houston’s winter: Likely drier, warmer than normal, Houston weather returns to autumn — for now, A reasonably strong front will push into Houston this evening, Much of Houston has seen no rainfall since Tropical Storm Beta, A weak front has pushed into Houston, a stronger one comes Friday. Houston is now out of the cone of uncertainty. Laura does not have a particularly well defined center and its interaction with the island may cause the center to re-form. The accuracy drops significantly after day five, and significant long-range forecast changes are noted from run to run. It is an excellent model in the one- to five-day range. GFS Model Description. Hope so, reading this in N. Padre Island. Trump, Joe Biden in dead heat in Georgia, NewsNation/Emerson poll shows, Commission to mute microphones in next presidential debate, Madison County Coroner reports overdose death numbers stabilizing, Stimulus update: Pelosi, Mnuchin ‘narrow differences’ ahead of House speaker’s Tuesday deadline, Listen: President Trump calls Fauci a ‘disaster’ and seeks to reassure his team he can win, DOJ accuses 6 Russian intelligence officers of vast computer hacking, Alabama health officials preparing for COVID-19 vaccine, but major questions remain, Woman charged with manslaughter and DUI in fatal September wreck, Decatur police looking for SUV that hit motorcycle, injuring two people, Huntsville law firm giving away 20 gift cards to help families in need. NHC Discussion on Laura. Earthquake. Store. I ask because dogs are more important than humans. Anyway, if you don’t want to miss our updates, you can subscribe to our email list in the box on this page. HURRICANE PREDICTIONS. Another factor is Marco, which we still don’t think will have a sensible effect on weather in the Houston metro area. For this reason we can’t entirely discount it.
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